A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...THE
ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN KS AND WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MID-AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN
KS INTO ERN NM...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO STALL IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS AHEAD OF A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRYLINE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING CUMULUS EXTENDED SWD FROM THE KS
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO
ENTER W TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS E OF THE BOUNDARY RESIDE IN THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S. THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8 C PER KM IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG.
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE OVER NERN NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS OVER W TX...POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANYING AN EWD SURGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
EWD TOWARD THE DRYLINE...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE KS TRIPLE POINT SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY 22-00Z.
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE NEAR 20F OVER THE WARM
SECTOR...AND MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY NEGATIVELY INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES DUE TO EXCESSIVE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
QUASI-DISCRETE INTO THE EVENING...THEN A COOLER/MORE HUMID BOUNDARY
LAYER COUPLED WITH BACKING/STRENGTHENING 0-1 KM FLOW MAY LEAD TO A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE BUOYANCY AND
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
