Today's severe weather outlook

HERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM EXTREME NW TX INTO SE CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR
UT...WRN CO...SE ID...SW WY...

...SE TX PANHANDLE TO SE CO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS W/NW TX WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INTO THE PVW-ABI-SPS
AREA...AND A SLOW INCREASE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LATENT HEAT FLUX FROM THE MOIST GROUND.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD EROSION AND DAYTIME HEATING FROM S TO N WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND HELP CONSOLIDATE A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT ALONG THE CAO-AMA-CDS-SPS CORRIDOR...ROUGHLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO PALO DURO CANYON. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND E OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. THIS
INSTABILITY...IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL
FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN
PVW-AMA-CDS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FOR PERSISTENT STORMS...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING 25-35 KT SLY/SSELY LLJ. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.