Tornado watch likely

SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN
OK PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS. ONE
OR MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z.

MDT/TOWERING CU CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AT MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED/FOOTHILL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING WITHIN A WARM/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE
EASTERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS BORDER VICINITY. FARTHER EAST...STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT ARCING GENERALLY NW-SE FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHERN
TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY INCLUDING THE
PLAINVIEW VICINITY TO SOUTH OF CHILDRESS.

WITH TIME...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/ULTIMATELY DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TERRAIN-ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...AS
WELL AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS.
WHILE A MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKNESS IS ASCERTAINED BETWEEN 1-4 KM PER
12Z OBSERVED RAOBS/LATEST PROFILER DATA...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
W-SW FLOW ALOFT AND VEERING WIND PROFILES /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MODIFYING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THE LATTER ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPING NEAR/INTERACTING WITH THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY.