NWS says tornadoes were EF-4s

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) - The National Weather Service has upgraded two of the tornadoes that hit central Oklahoma on Monday to EF-4 status.

The agency's Norman office said Friday a twister that traveled from Moore to Choctaw and another that started in Norman and traveled through Little Axe to Pink both had wind speeds of between 166 mph and 200 mph.

Tornadoes are rated from 0 to 5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale based on the damage they cause. The weather service originially rated the two tornadoes as EF-3 storms.

Four other twisters in Oklahoma on Monday have been rated as EF-3. Fewer than 5 percent of tornadoes are rated as EF-3 or higher.

Rick Smith, a warning coordination meteorologist with the weather service, says the agency upgraded the status of the two storms after looking at photographic evidence and visiting damage sites that had previously been closed off.

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

Possible severe weather Wednesday.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE
TX PANHANDLE...

...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS WEST TX EXTENDING NNWWD INTO
SE CO WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
FROM SE CO SSEWD ONTO THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WOULD BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED.





LINK

Nimbus east of town tonight ...

It blew up on the edge of a cold front.

(C) 2010 Steve Douglass

More incredible OKC tornado footage.

20 Plus Tornados

Watch CBS News Videos Online

May 10-2010 - Oklahoma Tornadopalooza!

Video courtesy KOCO TV.

Reed Timmer's amazing video:

Oklahoma City hit by two tornados!

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Details are sketchy - but here are some screen grabs of the damage from KOCO TV.
Damage reported in Norman and in SE OKC.

Upate: Lots of cars tossed at I-40 & Choctaw. Rescue and PD going car to car.

LIVE COVERAGE VIA KOCO HERE

UPDATE: (CNN) -- At least three people were killed and several others critically injured in Oklahoma on Monday after a severe weather system spawned multiple tornadoes across the state, including a massive twister recorded on video over Norman, Oklahoma.

The state medical examiner's office confirmed three deaths as a result of the storm, spokeswoman Cherokee Ballard said. One person died in southeastern Oklahoma City and another in Cleveland County. Ballard did not know the location of the third death.

Brenda Finkle, director of corporate communications for Norman Regional Health System, said the company's hospital in Norman admitted eight patients Monday night in critical condition with crush injuries and head trauma.
At least 25 other people filled the waiting room of Norman Regional Hospital with lacerations and head wounds, Finkle said, adding hospital staff expected more patients to continue to seek treatment.

Another 20 people were either getting medical care or awaiting treatment at Moore Medical Center, just north of Norman, according to Finkle.
OU Medical Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, received two patients with broken bones, according to spokesman Allen Poston.


The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management reported seven injuries.
Video out of Norman showed overturned cars, snapped utility poles, downed trees and severely damaged homes. Several mobile homes were blown to pieces in one neighborhood where debris littered yards and streets alongside large trees ripped straight from the ground.

A truck stop east of Oklahoma City was demolished, taking a direct hit from one of the tornadoes, according to a spokeswoman for Love's Travel Stops and Country Stores.
Motorists pulled off Interstate 40 and sought shelter in the truck stop's large coolers and restrooms before the tornado tore the roof off the building, blew out car windows and overturned tractor-trailers, spokeswoman Christina Dukeman said.

Video showed people outside the truck stop receiving treatment for minor injuries. Laura O'Leary, a spokeswoman for the Emergency Medical Services Authority, said seven people were transported from around the immediate area to local hospitals in good and fair condition, "a miraculously low number ... considering the volume of area the tornado covered."
Love's employee Charlescie Greenway said she and two other women made it to one cooler before the twister tore through the building.

"The three of us were kind of trapped in there, holding the door shut, praying to God that we don't die and that everybody else was safe," Greenway told CNN affiliate KWTV, adding, "it was really scary -- the wind was like trying to pull the door off the latch."
Sammy Ward and his partner rode the twister out in their truck in the parking lot.

"It started hailing and then it quit hailing and then all of a sudden the wind hit and it just went dark and here went everything," Ward told KWTV. "Trucks went to rocking ... and next thing we know the whole roof and everything was gone."

Ward, who said he felt "very lucky," said the event lasted two to three minutes.
Albert Ashwood, director of the state emergency management department, said crews were working to assess the damages in at least 13 counties, adding "numerous" homes had been affected.

The American Red Cross opened at least two shelters in McCloud, Oklahoma, and Tecumseh, Oklahoma, and continued to assess needs across the state.
More than 31,000 homes were without power in the metro Oklahoma City area -- nearly 15,000 in Norman alone, according to Oklahoma Gas & Electric.

Ashwood said preliminary reports out of Norman indicate the damages are "similar to what you would see with an EF3" tornado, referring to the Enhanced Fujita Scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes. An EF3 is capable of producing winds up to 165 mph.
CNN iReporter Rebecca Barbato said tornado sirens were going off in her neighborhood in Moore, just north of Norman, when tennis-ball-sized hail began raining down on her roof.
Other tornadoes were reported in Yukon, Medford and Shawnee in Oklahoma, and in Wichita, Kansas.

The storms struck around 5 p.m. CT (6 p.m. ET).
Meteorologists warned throughout the day Monday of the potential for tornadoes.

PDS issued!

Monday storms could be "historic"

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME
WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE
PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT
RISK.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF
MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT
INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH
APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE
CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER
S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG
TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

Possible severe weather next week:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060822
SPC AC 060822

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2010

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

06/00Z ECMWF...GFS AND MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ON DAY 4 /SUN MAY 9TH/...THE
NWD RETURN OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN EML
DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN TX. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
WEAK...LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MAY PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED STORM FORMATION
ALONG THE DRY LINE...OR PERHAPS A RETREATING WARM FRONT. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH THE THREATS FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM INITIATION AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE...NO SEVERE
WEATHER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

ON DAY 5 /MON MAY 10TH/...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
NEWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRAW A MOIST AIR MASS
NWD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

ON DAY 6 /TUE MAY 11TH/...THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DE-AMPLIFY/FILL AS IS PROGRESSES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO OZARK PLATEAU. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED POOR
LAPSE RATES...WEAKENING SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING/WIDESPREAD
STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION.

ON DAY 7 /WED MAY 12TH/...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN STATES. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE LOCATION OF
NE-SW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS
FRONTAL LOCATION BECOMES EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC WHEN FACTORING IN THE
POSSIBILITY THAT EPISODIC TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
COULD POTENTIALLY DISPLACE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT EVEN FARTHER S.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...UNCERTAINTY IN ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES
THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA.

..MEAD.. 05/06/2010

Bushland Tornado on CNN

Photos from today's chase (near Amarillo)

Due to a wobbly rear-tire I was forced to stay in the Amarillo area. I tried to go east-to where all the tornados were dropping (dozens I hear) but my car had other ideas.

Still- I took a few photos of the storm that blew through the north side of Amarillo and chased it up HWY 60 almost to Panhandle - but once it turned into a wall of white, I was forced to give up the chase.









Hail fog NE of Amarillo:

Click to enlarge:



These are photos of the two very brief land spouts in that storm that came up from the Umbarger area. They were very short lived (twenty-to thirty seconds) and dissipated as the storm gained power. I saw about five of these. No warnings were given-and in reality-they are very weak and probably didn't show up on radar.

I was surprised that AES didn't report them-but they were a tad late getting out to where I was.






Lots of dime sized hail NE of the city - pelting my car. Grabbed a snap out the open window before it hurt too much.


The "Big Boys" building off to the east. These thunder-bumpers dropped large hail and quite a few tornados in neighboring counties.



The road not taken - and after seeing all the great tornado footage on the TV - I should have risked it:

Tornado threat shifts east today

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SRN NV GRADUALLY REDEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. AN INITIAL
PERTURBATION EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EXTREME ERN AZ IS
LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A
SECOND FEATURE DIGGING SEWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO
TURN EWD ACROSS THE SRN AZ/NM BORDER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW CENTERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FROM WY SWD INTO NM. A DRY LINE IS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SWRN TX...IN ADVANCE OF A
N-S COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING EWD OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF CO AND
NM. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER SERN CO ESEWD NEAR THE
KS/OK BORDER INTO NWRN AR AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER ERN CO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...THE DRY LINE IS LIKELY TO MIX EWD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SWRN KS/TX
PANHANDLE/WEST TX. BY THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EWD AND OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE...REACHING AN ARCING LINE
FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK/AND WRN PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY 23/12Z.

...NERN CO/KS AREA...
SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD/NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A LAYER OF STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ENHANCED HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER CELLS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT SLOW WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FROM NERN CO INTO PARTS OF KS AS DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS AND COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60F ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO PARTS
OF KS...WITH 50F DEW POINTS MOVING INTO NERN CO AS MOIST SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO INHIBIT DIURNAL INSOLATION TODAY...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
REGIONS OF ENHANCED HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE CELLS TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN CO INTO WRN
KS WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT.

...PARTS OF WRN AND N CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK...
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND
THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT MOVES
NEWD INTO WRN OK. IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PERMIT REGIONS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO DEVELOP...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
75-80F RANGE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60-65F EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 1500-2000 J/KG.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE
INDICATING SEVERAL BANDS OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FORMING.
THE INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX
PANHANDLE BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN OK...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
EXTENSIVE BAND OF STORMS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL GENERATION...ESPECIALLY
WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM INITIALLY...AND THE COMBINATION
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL RESULT
IN A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES.

A BETTER DEFINED LINEAR MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ACCELERATING COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING...FIRST OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST THE LINE MAY CONTAIN EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES
WITH PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF WRN/NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK.
OWING TO ANTICIPATED LOW LEVEL COOLING AND STABILIZATION COUPLED
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE MODE...WE HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

On e more - storm panorama.

Click to enlarge:


(C) Steve Douglass

Today's severe weather outlook

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
PORTIONS CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL OK AND SRN KS....

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF MAIN
BODY OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE
NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NV. SEVERAL VORTICITY LOBES AND ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ORBIT THIS CIRCULATION AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH PERIOD...ITS CENTROID CROSSING NRN AZ
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. ONE OF THOSE
SHORTWAVES...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CA
COASTAL WATERS...IS FCST TO PIVOT THROUGH CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATH
ACROSS NERN MEX BY 23/00Z THEN ACROSS NM TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
END OF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE MAY EVOLVE INTO SEPARATE/SECONDARY
CYCLONE CENTER OVER ERN CO BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER/INITIALLY EJECTING PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT ATTM INVOF NERN
BAJA -- SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NM BY 22/18Z THEN OVER ERN
CO DURING DAY.

AT SFC...CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER ERN CO THROUGH MUCH OF
DAY...WITH WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN KS. BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON..EXPECT DRYLINE OVER SWRN KS TO E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO
NRN COAHUILA. LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT -- NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH PLUME
OF DEEP LIFT PRECEDING MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- WILL CROSS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF NM BY 23/00Z THEN OVER PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK AND W-CENTRAL
TX OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM W TX TO WRN KS AND NERN CO...WITH AT
THESE THREE PRIMARY EPISODES POSSIBLE...
1. ONGOING AT 22/12Z THROUGH LATE MORNING...AS EWD EXTENSION OF
EWD-SHIFTING REGIME OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND INCREASING CONVECTION
ALREADY EVIDENT ATTM OVER PORTIONS NM.
2. DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD ACTIVITY...WHICH
ITSELF MAY BE SPORADIC PROCESS THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
GIVEN EXPECTED WEAKNESS OF CINH IN MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR.
3. BAND OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS PROBABLE DURING LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD...MOVING EWD/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX AND
WRN/CENTRAL OK.

IN ADDITION...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL
AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
OVER NERN CO GIVEN SUFFICIENT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BEHIND EARLY
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SSE...WITHIN BROAD CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
PLUME...ONE OR TWO RATHER FOCUSED/MESOBETA-SCALE AREAS FOR
SUPERCELLS...SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY MESSY NATURE OF THIS SITUATION...ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN PERIOD...CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ATTM ON WHERE THOSE
FOCI WILL SET UP. THEREFORE...IT STILL IS TOO SOON TO ASSIGN
PROBABILITIES AOA CATEGORICAL MDT-RISK CRITERIA.

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AWAY FROM EXCESSIVELY STABILIZING CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES REASONABLY SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. WHERE THIS AIR MASS CAN BE HEATED
ON A SUSTAINED/ROBUST BASIS BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD
CONVECTION...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...SUPPORTED
BY 50S DEW POINTS OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AND 60S FROM WRN OK SWD.
EXPECT WHAT MAY BE TERMED A TOP-HEAVY BUOYANT PROFILE...WITH LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF CAPE ABOVE 500 MB. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH BACKED SFC WINDS UNDER MORE MERIDIONAL
FLOW OVER WRN CO/WRN KS...AND MORE CLASSICAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT
ACROSS PANHANDLES SWD OVER W-CENTRAL TX. EFFECTIVE SHEAR 45-55 KT
AND 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG SHOULD BE COMMON.

THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MIXTURE OF WIND/HAIL AS MORE LINEAR MODE
BEGINS TO DOMINATE THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND PRIMARY ZONE OF
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND
WRN/NRN TX.

The Interceptor meets the Dominator!

It was bound to happen one of these days!
Discovery Channel's Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers) poses with Discovery Channel's (Is that weird or what?) Steve Douglass.

We talked about fifteen about tonight's chase, tornados (what else) and even Area 51!








Joel and the other Tornadovideos.net team watch the storm:



SKYWARN spotter watching the big show:





All photos (C) Steve Douglass

From tonight's chase near Adrian, Texas

Inflow jet:
Click to enlarge:


Mid-level-funnel just north of I-40 near Adrian.



Wall cloud:

Click to enlarge:




Stay tuned-moe to follow.

-Steve Douglass

Tornado watch likely

SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN
OK PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS. ONE
OR MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z.

MDT/TOWERING CU CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AT MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED/FOOTHILL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING WITHIN A WARM/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE
EASTERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS BORDER VICINITY. FARTHER EAST...STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT ARCING GENERALLY NW-SE FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHERN
TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY INCLUDING THE
PLAINVIEW VICINITY TO SOUTH OF CHILDRESS.

WITH TIME...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/ULTIMATELY DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TERRAIN-ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...AS
WELL AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS.
WHILE A MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKNESS IS ASCERTAINED BETWEEN 1-4 KM PER
12Z OBSERVED RAOBS/LATEST PROFILER DATA...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
W-SW FLOW ALOFT AND VEERING WIND PROFILES /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MODIFYING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THE LATTER ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPING NEAR/INTERACTING WITH THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS BACKED TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

Today's severe weather outlook

HERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM EXTREME NW TX INTO SE CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR
UT...WRN CO...SE ID...SW WY...

...SE TX PANHANDLE TO SE CO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS W/NW TX WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INTO THE PVW-ABI-SPS
AREA...AND A SLOW INCREASE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LATENT HEAT FLUX FROM THE MOIST GROUND.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD EROSION AND DAYTIME HEATING FROM S TO N WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND HELP CONSOLIDATE A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT ALONG THE CAO-AMA-CDS-SPS CORRIDOR...ROUGHLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO PALO DURO CANYON. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND E OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. THIS
INSTABILITY...IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL
FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN
PVW-AMA-CDS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FOR PERSISTENT STORMS...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING 25-35 KT SLY/SSELY LLJ. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

Possible severe weather pattern next week.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 172148
SPC AC 172148

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PERSIST IN FORECASTING A LARGE
TROUGH -- NEAR THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- TO DIG SEWD
AND SETTLE INTO THE SWRN STATES AS A CLOSED LOW THROUGH DAY 5 /WED.
APR. 21/. AFTER THIS...A SLOWER/MORE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM
IS PROGGED...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE DAYS 7 AND 8 AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE E OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM HEADS EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NWD FROM AN OPEN GULF SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLE CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. AS HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT -- BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 /THU. APR. 22/. ATTM
IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR A N-S
TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW FIELD
WITH HEIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WHILE BEYOND DAY 6 THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM TO INTRODUCE A
DAY 6 THREAT AREA FROM KS SWD TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY.