Here's the latest probability graph:
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
IT APPEARS UPPER LOW THAT WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION
WILL BE NUDGED EAST ENOUGH THAT THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEB...SWD INTO WEST TX WILL EXPERIENCE HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG
THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER THEN EJECT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z.
SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SSELY LLJ ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS
AS FAR NORTH AS SWRN NEB AND EXTREME ERN CO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND PERHAPS REACH 50F. FARTHER
SOUTH...50S DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON ALONG DRYLINE SWD ACROSS TX
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO WRN KS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AS RECOVERING
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE THAT MOIST/BUOYANT. HOWEVER...WEST OF THIS WARM
ADVECTION ACTIVITY STRONG HEATING WILL BE NOTED ALONG
DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE FROM TX/NM BORDER NWD INTO ERN CO. THIS
HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE FIRST ALONG THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ACROSS ERN CO INTO SWRN NEB. STRONG SHEAR AND
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR NWD-MOVING
SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
HAIL. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...THOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER...INITIALLY...ALONG SRN BOUNDARY UNTIL LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION
THEN EVOLVE INTO LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES AFTER DARK. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE
EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...OVERSPREADING MUCH OF WRN OK/NWRN TX BY
12Z.
..DARROW.. 04/14/2009
