BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME
WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE
PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT
RISK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF
MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT
INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH
APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE
CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER
S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG
TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
