SPC AC 070543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED MAR 06 2013
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EJECTION OF LEAD SPEED MAX ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS BY 09/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE DRYLINE
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM A LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO...SWD ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.
LLJ WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW MODIFIED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW 50S SFC DEW POINTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE WHILE 45-50F DEW POINTS COULD BE IN PLACE NEAR THE
DRYLINE BY 21Z. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO ERN NM AND FORECAST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 65-70F. 23Z SOUNDING FOR DHT EXHIBITS A
STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 J/KG WITH VERY WEAK INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS ISOLATED TSTMS...POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS...WILL EVOLVE BY EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO...ARCING
SSEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES MAY BE NO HIGHER THAN 1KM DUE
TO RELATIVE LOW TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. FOR THIS REASON CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES.
WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT IT WOULD SEEM
LIKELY THAT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE
INTO WRN OK AND ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME AND SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
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