ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 172148
SPC AC 172148
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PERSIST IN FORECASTING A LARGE
TROUGH -- NEAR THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- TO DIG SEWD
AND SETTLE INTO THE SWRN STATES AS A CLOSED LOW THROUGH DAY 5 /WED.
APR. 21/. AFTER THIS...A SLOWER/MORE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM
IS PROGGED...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE DAYS 7 AND 8 AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE E OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM HEADS EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL DAYS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NWD FROM AN OPEN GULF SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLE CAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. AS HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT -- BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 /THU. APR. 22/. ATTM
IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR A N-S
TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW FIELD
WITH HEIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WHILE BEYOND DAY 6 THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM TO INTRODUCE A
DAY 6 THREAT AREA FROM KS SWD TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
