MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231739Z - 231915Z

INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A N-S BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF KS AND INTO NWRN OK WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE SOON.

A SHARPENING DRYLINE IS BULGING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES ATTM...AS HEATING CONTINUES W OF THE LOW CLOUD BAND OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS/CENTRAL AND ERN OK. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW 70S HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE.

AS AIRMASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXISTING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION --
DEPICTING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WHILE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 03/23/2009


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38999643 37809657 36399726 35609874 38749862 39919903
39989653 38999643