NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291959Z - 292130Z
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
INITIATE ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. VERY STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY TEMPER THE AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE
OVERALL THREAT. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT TCU BUILDUPS
INCREASING ACROSS FAR SERN CO NEAR A CYCLONE CENTERED AROUND 30 SE
LAA AND IN PATCHES ALONG THE DRY LINE THAT EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE
TX PANHANDLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF TSTM INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE APPEARS GREATEST. THIS SHOULD THEN
EVOLVE EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY LYING FROM
SWRN KS THROUGH WRN TX WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
AREA PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE RATHER MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN BELTS OF STRONGER NRN/SRN STREAM WLYS...VEERED KINEMATIC
PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
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