All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted.

All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted. Permission required for commercial use or publishing.

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Friday, April 24, 2009

Sunday looking good for isolated supercells- best kind to chase!


...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN AXIS
OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL EXIST IN
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE. PLUME OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EAST AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN KS...WRN OK AND WRN TX AS LOW CLOUDS
MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE WARM SECTOR WILL INITIALLY
BE CAPPED. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENT
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EAST AND AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH
SIZE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL.

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