Today's Severe Forecast

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / NWRN TX AND WRN OK PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141805Z - 141930Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NERN NM
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WSW-ENE ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
CNTRL KS. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WAS RAPIDLY MIXING EWD THROUGH ERN
NM...WHILE A WARM FRONT /DELINEATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY
STORMS/ WAS RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE TX PNHDL.

FORECAST IS COMPLEX TODAY OWING TO THE NEWD TRANSLATION OF A LEAD
IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK...AND THE EARLY NEWD
EJECTION OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL INTO NERN NM.
AS A RESULT...STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD DISCUSSION AREA PRIOR TO PEAK AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
DISTURBANCES WILL RESTRICT DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG.

GIVEN THE RAPID ARRIVAL OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO PRIMARY
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS INVOF
SURFACE LOW AND ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. ABQ VWPS SHOWS A 50 KT
JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
EFFECTIVELY UTILIZE AVAILABLE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 06/14/2009


ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...