All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted.

All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted. Permission required for commercial use or publishing.

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Monday, April 30, 2012

Significant sever weather risk today - especially Tuila/Plainview area

..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/MO. THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM AMA-SPS-ADM-FSM. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT AMPLE MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN 19-22Z...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 12Z AMA RAOB ALSO SUPPORTS RATHER EARLY INITIATION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONLY A MINIMAL CAP. STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MEAN FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK WITH AN CONTINUED RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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