All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted.
All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted. Permission required for commercial use or publishing.
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Monday, April 30, 2012
Significant sever weather risk today - especially Tuila/Plainview area
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/OK/MO.
THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM AMA-SPS-ADM-FSM. EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
AMPLE MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AGREE ON STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 19-22Z...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
AREA APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 12Z AMA RAOB ALSO SUPPORTS RATHER
EARLY INITIATION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONLY A MINIMAL CAP.
STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MEAN FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO
DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOME RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST KS
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS
MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK WITH AN CONTINUED RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
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