SPC AC 070543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST WED MAR 06 2013 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EJECTION OF LEAD SPEED MAX ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY 09/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM A LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO...SWD ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. LLJ WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW MODIFIED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW 50S SFC DEW POINTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WHILE 45-50F DEW POINTS COULD BE IN PLACE NEAR THE DRYLINE BY 21Z. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO ERN NM AND FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 65-70F. 23Z SOUNDING FOR DHT EXHIBITS A STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG WITH VERY WEAK INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS ISOLATED TSTMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...WILL EVOLVE BY EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO...ARCING SSEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES MAY BE NO HIGHER THAN 1KM DUE TO RELATIVE LOW TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. FOR THIS REASON CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TORNADOES. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE INTO WRN OK AND ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted.
All original images (C) Steve Douglass unless otherwise noted. Permission required for commercial use or publishing.
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Thursday, March 7, 2013
Posible severe weather tomorrow Amarillo & vicinity
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